How Close Is a Russia–NATO Conflict? Europe Is Arming Itself

Are we living in a pre-war period or a controlled crisis? 💡 We analyze the fragile balance in the Europe of 2026. From NATO's Article 5 and the EU's strategic autonomy to the key role of the United Kingdom and China's cold stance. Using Game Theory, we examine whether Europe can strengthen its deterrence without getting trapped in an endless cycle of insecurity that inevitably leads to conflict.

🔍 What you will see in the analysis:

The Security Dilemma: How one side's defensive rearmament is perceived as a threat by the other.

Game Theory: The game of "Chicken" in the Baltic and the "Prisoner's Dilemma" between Moscow and Brussels.

The U.S. Variable: Why is Washington looking toward Taiwan while Europe is on fire?

Global Players: China's strategic patience, India's balancing act, and Turkey's role as a mediator.

Europe vs. Indo-Pacific: Where is a military explosion more likely, and where is a global war?

💡 The Conclusion:
Deterrence and composure are worth more than weapon systems. In a world where mistakes cost more than ever, the question is not whether war is inevitable, but whether leaders can back down without losing their prestige.

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