The War in Ukraine Understanding the Delay and the War of Narratives
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The war in Ukraine continues not because a solution doesn't exist, but because the solution does not yet serve those with the power to impose it. We analyze the real balance of power behind the closed doors of diplomacy. Why is Europe the biggest loser? What is Poland's role, and how is Washington using attrition as a strategic tool? An analysis of the end of illusions and the upcoming "new reality" in Eastern Europe.
🇷🇺 Moscow's Strategy: Reversing 1991
Territorial Fait Accompli: How Russia seeks to consolidate control over critical territories, transforming temporary occupation into a permanent geopolitical reality.
Strategic Depth Zone: The objective of deterring a permanent NATO presence and the demand for a new security architecture in Eurasia.
🇺🇸 USA & Poland: The Containment Front
Manageable Cost for Washington: Why the U.S. is in no rush for peace, as long as the attrition of Russian resources serves its global interests.
Warsaw's Ambition: Poland’s role as the new primary U.S. partner and the historical distrust dictating its hardline stance.
🇪🇺 European Union: The Observer of Developments
Strategic Schism: The absence of unified political will and the dependence on American decisions that come at a high cost to the European economy.
The Bankruptcy of a Narrative: The need for European leaderships to buy "political time" to manage the failure of the eastward expansion policy.
⚖️ Conclusion: Toward a "Finlandization" of Ukraine?
Ukraine is unlikely to regain the 2022 borders, while Russia is unlikely to fully control Kyiv. The most probable scenario is a painful agreement of limited strategic alignment. The longer the solution is delayed, the worse the terms become for the people bleeding on the ground, and the deeper the crisis is solidified.
💬 Conclusion & Call to Action
Is the "Finlandization" of Ukraine a realistic compromise or an admission of defeat for the West? Who will ultimately pay the bill for reconstruction? Share your thoughts in the comments! 👇
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