The Position of the Baltic States, the Balkans, and the Caucasus in the New American Strategy
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The 2025 NSS Redefines the Geopolitical Value of Small and Medium States 💡
In this analysis, we explore how the Baltic states, the Balkans, and the Caucasus are being transformed from the "periphery" into vital components of a global architecture. From Estonia’s cyber-defense to Azerbaijan’s energy corridors and Serbia’s strategic uncertainty, Washington is looking for functional hubs rather than just traditional allies.
🗺️ Analysis by Geopolitical Subsystem
The Baltic States: The West’s Advanced Radar Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are no longer "vulnerable states" but power multipliers. With high digitalization and world-class cyber-defense, they represent the testing ground for the limits of Russian hybrid warfare. The US invests there with low cost and maximum strategic return.
The Balkans: The Functional Stability Zone Washington is shifting from "humanitarian engagement" to the control of energy networks. While Croatia and Montenegro serve as pillars in the Adriatic, Serbia is treated as a conduit for Russian and Chinese influence. The goal is to maintain control to prevent competitors from infiltrating the heart of Europe.
The Caucasus: A Space of Indirect Competition A classic field of conflicting interests between Russia, Turkey, Iran, and China. We analyze Azerbaijan's role as the Caspian–Europe energy link, Armenia’s transition, and Georgia’s position as a candidate partner for the West.
⚙️ The New Doctrine: Power through Networks
Under the logic of the NSS 2025, a state’s value is not judged by its size, but by its integration into networks:
The Baltics: Early warning zone.
The Balkans: Containment and institutional stability zone.
The Caucasus: Control zone for the corridors connecting Europe and Asia.
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