Points of Friction for Peace in Ukraine and the Possible Equilibrium
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The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS) 2025 marks a definitive end to an era. Washington is abdicating its role as the global "custodian" (America First doctrine), pushing for a "rapid settlement" in Ukraine and seeking strategic stability with Russia, which it no longer labels a "threat." Europe is left in a state of suspension, forced to assume primary responsibility for its own defense and navigate the fallout of the Russian asset de-dollarization.
📉 The Radical Shift in American Strategy
America First & the Monroe Doctrine: The NSS signals a decisive pivot toward the Western Hemisphere. Europe is downgraded to a continent in decline that must contain Russia using its own resources.
Russia’s New Status: Described now as a "non-threat," the US seeks a "vital interest" in negotiating a swift ceasefire. This bolsters Moscow’s bargaining position, as it rejects territorial compromise proposals and insists on security guarantees that overhaul the NATO architecture.
The NATO & EU Crisis: The American umbrella is no longer unconditional. NATO is accelerating the shift toward autonomous European support (targeting 5% of GDP for defense by 2035) while reinforcing the "Eastern Watch" and "Baltic Watch." Europe faces a grim dilemma: a prolonged conflict without full US support or an immediate end with the catastrophic cost of integrating a war-torn Ukraine.
💰 The War Over Frozen Russian Assets (€210 Billion)
The European Strategy: The EU has decided to keep Russian state assets (€210 billion held in Euroclear) frozen indefinitely as collateral for a long-term "Reparation Loan" to Ukraine (up to €165 billion for 2026-2027).
Conflict with the US: Recent American leaks regarding "Clause 14" directly clash with EU policy, proposing the unfreezing and partial return of capital to Russia. This reveals a deep schism: Europe seeks to maintain maximum pressure, while the Trump administration prioritizes a rapid, transactional exit.
🎯 Conclusion: Changing the Terms of Engagement
The NSS 2025 shifts the primary axis of tension from the battlefield to the diplomatic halls of Europe. Future stability now depends on Europe’s autonomous strategic power and Ukraine’s ability to survive under these new, harsher conditions. The era of automatic American protection has officially ended.
💬 Conclusion & Call to Action
Do you believe the EU's decision to use frozen Russian assets as collateral will be enough to secure Ukraine's long-term defense without full US support? Let us know in the comments! 👇
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